Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-01 02:47:16Updated 2026-09-01 02:47:16

公开历史记录Public Track Record

以朴素基线、严格外层留出和首次发布数据为中心，展示模型是否真正增加预测价值。Model value is assessed against simple baselines with untouched outer origins and initial-release data.

查看方法页Open Methodology
通过基线门控Passed baseline gate0 / 70 项全期技能值为正0 with positive full-sample skill
覆盖指标Indicators covered7 个7逐项独立评估，不汇总异频样本Evaluated separately; mixed-frequency samples are not summed
MASE中位数Median MASE1.016低于1才优于本轮最强朴素基线Below 1 beats the strongest simple baseline
样本窗口Sample window2015-01-03 - 2026-08-222026-09-01 02:47
指标Indicator模型状态Model statusMASE / 技能值MASE / skill近期MASERecent MASE方向命中率Directional hit rate样本Pairs模型Model
10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y · 日频Daily未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.000技能Skill 0.0%
1.0000.0%
27.1%20.5% - 35.0%多数方向Majority 53.6%
1392015-01-31 - 2026-07-31
Baseline[zero]基线Baseline zero
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE · 月频Monthly未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.009技能Skill -0.9%
1.0000.0%
71.9%64.0% - 78.7%多数方向Majority 51.1%
1382015-01-31 - 2026-06-30
NestedEnsemble[factor_bridge+robust_state_space]基线Baseline last
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury YieldDGS10 · 日频Daily未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.011技能Skill -1.1%
1.0000.0%
11.4%7.2% - 17.8%多数方向Majority 54.3%
1392015-01-31 - 2026-07-31
Baseline[zero]基线Baseline zero
2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury YieldDGS2 · 日频Daily未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.016技能Skill -1.6%
1.0000.0%
18.6%13.0% - 25.8%多数方向Majority 55.0%
1392015-01-31 - 2026-07-31
Baseline[zero]基线Baseline zero
工业生产Industrial ProductionINDPRO · 月频Monthly未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.025技能Skill -2.5%
1.0000.0%
40.3%32.5% - 48.6%多数方向Majority 56.1%
1382015-01-31 - 2026-06-30
Baseline[zero]基线Baseline zero
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS · 月频Monthly未证明优势No demonstrated edge
1.136技能Skill -13.6%
1.342-34.2%
88.5%82.1% - 92.8%多数方向Majority 88.5%
1382015-01-31 - 2026-06-30
Baseline[zero]基线Baseline zero
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA · 周频Weekly未证明优势No demonstrated edge
3.247技能Skill -224.7%
0.9821.8%
49.3%45.4% - 53.3%多数方向Majority 53.9%
6082015-01-03 - 2026-08-22
NestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]基线Baseline last

结果来自外层严格留出、内层选模的滚动验证；MASE与本轮内层选择出的最强朴素基线比较。宏观输入优先使用ALFRED首次发布值及真实可用日期，模型未稳定战胜基线时明确标记为实验性或未证明优势。Results use rolling validation with untouched outer origins and model selection confined to inner history. MASE is measured against the strongest simple baseline selected inside each cycle. Macro inputs prefer ALFRED initial releases and their real availability dates; models that do not consistently beat baseline are labeled experimental or no demonstrated edge.

混频观察面Mixed-Cadence Signal Board

先用真实发布节奏浏览日频、周频和月频信号，再往下进入统一的预测指标摘要与后续工作面。Start with the real mixed-cadence release rhythm across daily, weekly, and monthly signals, then move into the unified forecast summary and the rest of the workbench.

日频Daily

日频市场信号Daily Market Signals

利率与利差信号更新更快，更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.

偏承压Under Pressure

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

DGS10

日频Daily正常Normal
-8.0 bp
10年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y Treasury yield
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测Observed2026-08-27 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
偏承压Under Pressure

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

DGS2

日频Daily正常Normal
-8.0 bp
2年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 2Y Treasury yield
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测Observed2026-08-27 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
偏承压Under Pressure

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

T10Y2Y

日频Daily正常Normal
-8.0 bp
10Y-2Y美债利差一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测Observed2026-08-28 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-28 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
周频Weekly

周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals

周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间，用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.

周频Weekly正常Normal
204,250
初请失业金四周移动平均Four-week average of initial jobless claims
按周发布，适合观察劳动力边际变化。Released weekly and useful for reading marginal labor changes.
最新观测Observed2026-08-22 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window2026-08-29 00:00
月频Monthly

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布，因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.

偏积极Constructive

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

PCEPILFE

月频Monthly正常Normal
3.61%
核心PCE月度年化通胀Core PCE monthly inflation, annualized
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-31 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
偏承压Under Pressure

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

PAYEMS

月频Monthly正常Normal
-126k
非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-07 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
偏积极Constructive

工业生产Industrial Production

INDPRO

月频Monthly正常Normal
0.34%
工业生产月度环比增速Industrial production monthly growth
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-17 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00

预测指标摘要Forecast Indicator Summary

在混频信号之后，用统一的指标摘要查看当前使用值、下一步预测与官方发布状态。After the mixed-cadence surface, use this summary to scan current readings, next-step forecasts, and official release status in one place.

当前决策月 2026年9月Decision month Sep 2026站点更新 2026-09-01 02:47Site updated 2026-09-01 02:47
已更新Updated按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release缺失Missing

这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.

指标Indicator本期使用值Current cycle下一目标预测Next target forecast来源频率 / 观测Source cadence / Observation官方发布Official release状态Status
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE
3.61%核心PCE月度年化通胀Core PCE monthly inflation, annualized
3.54%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31
月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01
2026-08-31按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS
-126k非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls
0k现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31
月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01
2026-08-07按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
工业生产Industrial ProductionINDPRO
0.34%工业生产月度环比增速Industrial production monthly growth
0.00%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31
月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01
2026-08-17按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA
204,250初请失业金四周移动平均Four-week average of initial jobless claims
206,930现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-29Nowcast · Target 2026-08-29
周频Weekly观测 2026-08-22Observed 2026-08-22
2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury YieldDGS10
-8.0 bp10年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y Treasury yield
0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30
日频Daily观测 2026-08-27Observed 2026-08-27
2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury YieldDGS2
-8.0 bp2年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 2Y Treasury yield
0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30
日频Daily观测 2026-08-27Observed 2026-08-27
2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y
-8.0 bp10Y-2Y美债利差一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread
0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30
日频Daily观测 2026-08-28Observed 2026-08-28
2026-08-28按官方节奏Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

终端矩阵Surface Matrix

先把公开工作面的宽度露出来，再进入具体的混频观察与深读终端。Make the platform breadth visible first, then move into mixed-cadence monitoring and deep-read terminals.

总览终端Overview Terminal
日频Daily周频Weekly月频Monthly

宏观总览终端Macro Overview Terminal

覆盖全部 7 个正式指标，先给月度配置摘要，再进入按日频、周频、月频组织的深读界面。Covers all seven published indicators, opening with a monthly allocation summary before moving into deep reads across daily, weekly, and monthly cadence.

7 个指标7 indicators3 个模块3 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2YICSAPCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO

适合从统一判断切到分频深读。Best for moving from a unified view into cadence-based deep reading.

进入工作面Open Surface
主题看板Thematic Surface
日频Daily

利率与曲线Rates & Curve

聚焦 10Y、2Y 与 10Y-2Y 利差，观察交易窗口内的利率水平、曲线变化与风险偏好。Focuses on the 10Y, 2Y, and 10Y-2Y spread to monitor rates, curve shape, and risk appetite through the trading window.

3 个指标3 indicators1 个模块1 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y

适合跟踪利率环境与曲线信号。Best for following the rates regime and curve signals.

进入工作面Open Surface
主题看板Thematic Surface
周频Weekly月频Monthly

劳动力与就业Labor & Employment

围绕周频初请失业金和月频就业指标，观察就业景气的边际变化与月度确认。Pairs weekly claims with monthly labor releases to track marginal labor changes and monthly confirmation.

2 个指标2 indicators2 个模块2 modules
ICSAPAYEMS

适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.

进入工作面Open Surface
主题看板Thematic Surface
月频Monthly

增长与通胀Growth & Inflation

围绕核心 PCE、非农与工业生产，集中查看月频宏观基本面的组合状态。Centers on Core PCE, payrolls, and industrial production for a focused read on monthly macro fundamentals.

3 个指标3 indicators1 个模块1 modules
PCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO

适合月度资产配置与基本面跟踪。Best for monthly allocation and fundamentals tracking.

进入工作面Open Surface

本次更新This Cycle

本次更新没有新增正式值进入当前决策月，站点主要维持现有公开读数与发布时间结构。No new official values entered the current decision month in this release; the site mainly carries forward the current public readings and cadence structure.

本周期已更新Updated this cycle
本周期暂无新正式值No new official prints this cycle首页当前主要延续现有公开读数，并把注意力放在仍按官方节奏待发布的信号上。The homepage is currently carrying forward the existing public readings while prioritizing the signals still waiting on their official cadence.
按节奏待发布Awaiting cadence
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
打开本次变化工作面Open latest batch workbench

更新流Update Stream

用站点刷新、指标更新、研究发布和下一次官方发布时间，建立持续跟踪的节奏感。Blend site refreshes, indicator updates, research releases, and the next official release into a visible monitoring rhythm.

研究发布Research release2026-09-01 02:47

2026年9月月度配置简报Sep 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 公开指标 展开，并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。This month's brief centers on published signals and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

发布时间预览Release Calendar Preview

提前看到各指标的下一次官方发布时间，让站点具备持续跟踪的工作台感。Preview the next official release dates so the site feels like a live working surface rather than a static page.

指标Indicator频率Cadence最近一次正式发布Latest official release下一次正式发布Next official release当前状态Current status
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury YieldDGS10查看 10年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。Open the 10Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频Daily
2026-08-27
2026-09-01
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury YieldDGS2查看 2年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。Open the 2Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频Daily
2026-08-27
2026-09-01
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y查看 10Y-2Y美债利差 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。Open the 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频Daily
2026-08-28
2026-09-01
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA查看 初请失业金人数 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。Open the Initial Jobless Claims detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
周频Weekly
2026-08-27
2026-09-03
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
查看完整发布日历Open Full Release Calendar

研究更新Research Updates

首页研究区同时呈现人工主研究、月度简报和最新指标更新，让平台既有主题判断也有持续节奏感。The homepage research surface combines anchor research, a monthly brief, and the latest indicator updates so the platform carries both thematic conviction and release rhythm.

首页研究区固定呈现 1 条主研究、1 条当月简报和最新的指标更新摘要，用来把结构化判断和持续更新感放在同一个入口层。The homepage research surface keeps one anchor, one current-month brief, and the latest signal notes in view so structural conviction and update cadence stay visible in one entry layer.

Economic Forecasting 研究组Economic Forecasting Research Desk正式研究Anchor research

七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard

这七个公开指标不是七个平行栏目，而是一张分层记分卡。通胀、增长、劳动力和利率分别提供不同的确认职责，只有把它们按发布时间节奏和信息功能放到同一框架里，平台才会真正像终端，而不是一组孤立图表。The seven public indicators are not seven parallel columns but a layered scorecard. Inflation, growth, labor, and rates each play a different confirmation role, and only a shared cadence-and-function framework makes the platform feel like a terminal rather than a set of disconnected charts.

通胀Inflation增长Growth劳动力Labor利率Rates主研究Anchor核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls工业生产Industrial Production初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
发布时间 2026-04-03Published 2026-04-03阅读全文Read Full Research
Economic ForecastingEconomic Forecasting月度简报Monthly brief

2026年9月月度配置简报Sep 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 公开指标 展开，并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。This month's brief centers on published signals and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

月度配置Monthly allocation公开指标Published indicators
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls工业生产Industrial Production10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims
发布时间 2026-09-01Published 2026-09-01

方法与边界Method & Boundary

公开页面保留必要的方法透明度，进一步的维护细节下沉到系统说明页。Public pages keep the necessary method transparency, while deeper maintenance details live in the System Guide.

覆盖范围Coverage

公开页面围绕 7 个正式发布指标展开，并在混频观察面之上增加月度配置摘要，兼顾月度判断与节奏观察。The public surface covers seven published indicators and adds a monthly allocation summary above the mixed-cadence surface to balance decision framing with release-rhythm observation.

时间语义Time semantics

首页与仪表盘统一展示最新观测、官方发布、站点更新与预测目标四个时间字段，降低对 tooltip 的依赖。The homepage and dashboard expose observed, official release, site update, and forecast target timestamps directly rather than hiding them behind tooltips.

方法透明度Method transparency

公开页面保留模型方法摘要、预测窗口与评估指标；更完整的工程说明集中放在系统说明页。Public pages keep model summaries, forecast windows, and evaluation metrics visible while deeper engineering notes stay in the System Guide.

适用边界Usage boundary

本平台用于宏观跟踪、研究阅读与方法透明度展示，不构成投资建议。The platform supports macro monitoring, research reading, and method transparency. It does not constitute investment advice.