Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-01 04:36:06Updated 2026-09-01 04:36:06
主题看板Thematic Surface

劳动力与就业Labor & Employment

围绕周频初请失业金和月频就业指标,观察就业景气的边际变化与月度确认。Pairs weekly claims with monthly labor releases to track marginal labor changes and monthly confirmation.

2 个劳动力核心指标2 core labor indicators适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.
周频Weekly

周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals

周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间,用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.

周频Weekly正常Normal
204,250
初请失业金四周移动平均Four-week average of initial jobless claims
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window

不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新,月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后,这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.

最新观测Observed2026-08-22 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 04:36
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window2026-08-29 00:00
MASE3.247
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-224.7%
近期 MASERecent MASE0.982
方向准确率Direction49.3%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastNestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]
月频Monthly

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布,因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.

偏承压Under Pressure

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

PAYEMS

月频Monthly正常Normal
-126k
非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window

不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新,月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后,这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.

最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-07 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 04:36
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
MASE1.136
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-13.6%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.342
方向准确率Direction88.5%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]