中性Balanced
当前可用值Current usable value204,250
周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims
初请失业金人数是观察劳动力边际走弱最敏感的周频信号之一，通常早于月频就业数据给出变化。Initial claims are among the most sensitive weekly labor signals and often move before monthly employment releases confirm the trend.
当前周期读数Current-Cycle Readout
把当前可用值、上一期、下一预测和时间语义放在同一页，方便从总览切到单指标深读。Keep the current reading, prior observation, next forecast, and timing semantics on one page for single-indicator deep reading.
202,750
206,930
正常Normal
实时抓取Fresh fetch
本次变化摘要This Cycle Change
这一层直接回答当前值相对上一正式值发生了什么，以及本周期是否已经出现新的正式发布。This layer answers what changed versus the prior official print and whether a new official release has already arrived this cycle.
上行Up
203,000
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
2026-09-03
初请失业金人数 当前沿用 204,250 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 202,750。Initial Jobless Claims is still carrying 204,250 as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was 202,750.
时间语义Time semantics
最新观测、官方发布、站点更新和预测目标分别回答的是不同问题，不能彼此替代。Observed, official release, site update, and forecast target answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
最新观测Observed2026-08-22 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window2026-08-29 00:00
图表阅读Chart view
先看焦点窗口确认最新拐点和预测边界，再看长历史窗口理解该指标在更长周期中的位置。Use the focus window for the latest turn and forecast boundary, then the long-history window for broader cycle context.
焦点图Focus chartNestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]
长历史图Long-history chart全窗口Full window
模型与诊断Model & diagnostics
MAE70833.774
RMSE488136.341
MASE3.247
方向准确率Direction49.3%
相对基线技能值Skill vs baseline-224.7%
近期MASERecent MASE0.982
模型框架：NestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]Model: NestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]
发布时间节奏Release cadence
发布时间有早有后通常来自指标自身的官方节奏差异，而不是站点异常。Differences across release timing usually come from the indicator's official cadence rather than a site anomaly.
| 正式发布时间Official release | 观测期Observed at | 正式值Official value | 本周期标记Cycle flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 2026-08-22 | 204,250 | |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-15 | 202,750 | |
| 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-08 | 198,000 | |
| 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-01 | 197,750 | |
| 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-25 | 201,750 | |
| 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-18 | 206,250 | |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-11 | 213,250 | |
| 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-04 | 217,750 | |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-27 | 221,250 | |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-06-20 | 223,750 | |
| 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-13 | 223,750 | |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-06 | 219,500 |
方法与边界Method & boundary
相关研究Related research
优先展示与当前指标直接相关的正式研究和模板化更新摘要，帮助从单指标延伸到主题判断。Prioritize anchor research and templated update briefs linked to this indicator so the user can move from a single series into thematic reading.
主研究Anchor Research
Economic Forecasting 研究组Economic Forecasting Research Desk正式研究Anchor research
七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard
通胀Inflation增长Growth劳动力Labor利率Rates主研究Anchor
月度简报Monthly Briefs
Economic ForecastingEconomic Forecasting月度简报Monthly brief
2026年9月月度配置简报Sep 2026 monthly brief
月度配置Monthly allocation公开指标Published indicators
最新指标更新Latest Release Notes
Economic ForecastingEconomic Forecasting指标更新Release note
初请失业金人数 发布摘要Initial Jobless Claims release note
周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals周频Weekly