日频市场信号 Daily Market Signals

10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield

10 年期美债收益率提供了长端利率环境的直接读数，有助于观察增长预期、期限溢价与风险偏好。 The 10Y Treasury yield provides a direct read on long-end rates, growth expectations, term premium, and risk appetite.

返回终端总览 Back to overview terminal 查看本次变化 Open latest batch 查看发布时间日历 Open release calendar 查看发布历史 Open release history

当前周期读数 Current-Cycle Readout

把当前可用值、上一期、下一预测和时间语义放在同一页，方便从总览切到单指标深读。 Keep the current reading, prior observation, next forecast, and timing semantics on one page for single-indicator deep reading.

偏积极 Constructive

当前可用值 Current usable value

4.45%

水平 Level

上一期 Previous reading

4.48%

观测 2026-05-27 Observed 2026-05-27

下一预测 Next forecast

4.45%

目标 2026-06-01 Target 2026-06-01

状态 Current status

正常 Normal

与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.

数据状态 Data status

实时抓取 Fresh fetch

当前运行使用了本轮实时抓数结果。 This indicator used a live fetch result in the current run.

本次变化摘要 This Cycle Change

这一层直接回答当前值相对上一正式值发生了什么，以及本周期是否已经出现新的正式发布。 This layer answers what changed versus the prior official print and whether a new official release has already arrived this cycle.

变化方向 Direction

下行 Down

10年期美债收益率本周期尚无新正式值，当前仍按既有正式发布节奏等待更新。 10Y Treasury Yield has no new official print this cycle yet and is still waiting on its normal release cadence.

最新正式值 Latest official value

4.45%

上一正式值 4.48% Previous official 4.48%

本周期状态 Cycle status

按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release

当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

下一次正式发布 Next official release

2026-06-01

今天 Today

10年期美债收益率当前沿用 4.45% 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 4.48%。 10Y Treasury Yield is still carrying 4.45% as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was 4.48%.

时间语义 Time semantics

最新观测、官方发布、站点更新和预测目标分别回答的是不同问题，不能彼此替代。 Observed, official release, site update, and forecast target answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.

最新观测 Observed 2026-05-28 00:00

官方发布 Official release 2026-05-28 00:00

站点更新 Site update 2026-06-01 09:19

下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-06-01 00:00

图表阅读 Chart view

先看焦点窗口确认最新拐点和预测边界，再看长历史窗口理解该指标在更长周期中的位置。 Use the focus window for the latest turn and forecast boundary, then the long-history window for broader cycle context.

焦点图 Focus chart ARIMAX(3, 1, 3)

长历史图 Long-history chart 全窗口 Full window

模型与诊断 Model & diagnostics

MAE 0.184

RMSE 0.240

MAPE 7.98

方向准确率 Direction 49.3%

模型框架：ARIMAX(3, 1, 3) Model: ARIMAX(3, 1, 3)

发布时间节奏 Release cadence

最近一次官方发布 Latest official release 2026-05-28 00:00

下一次官方发布 Next official release 2026-06-01 00:00

发布时间有早有后通常来自指标自身的官方节奏差异，而不是站点异常。 Differences across release timing usually come from the indicator's official cadence rather than a site anomaly.

2026-05-28 观测 2026-05-28 Observed 2026-05-28 4.45%

2026-05-27 观测 2026-05-27 Observed 2026-05-27 4.48%

2026-05-26 观测 2026-05-26 Observed 2026-05-26 4.50%

2026-05-22 观测 2026-05-22 Observed 2026-05-22 4.56%

2026-05-21 观测 2026-05-21 Observed 2026-05-21 4.57%

2026-05-20 观测 2026-05-20 Observed 2026-05-20 4.57%

正式发布时间 Official release	观测期 Observed at	正式值 Official value	本周期标记 Cycle flag
2026-05-28	2026-05-28	4.45%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-27	2026-05-27	4.48%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-26	2026-05-26	4.50%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-22	2026-05-22	4.56%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-21	2026-05-21	4.57%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-20	2026-05-20	4.57%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-19	2026-05-19	4.67%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-18	2026-05-18	4.61%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-15	2026-05-15	4.59%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-14	2026-05-14	4.47%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-13	2026-05-13	4.46%	历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-12	2026-05-12	4.46%	历史正式值 Historical print

方法与边界 Method & boundary

它会同时受到宏观数据、政策预期和市场定价影响，不能被当作单一基本面变量解读。 It is influenced by macro data, policy expectations, and market positioning, so it should not be read as a single fundamental variable.

这一详情页把月度配置摘要、混频观察面和发布时间语义汇总到单一指标视角，方便从总览切到深读。 This detail page condenses the monthly summary, mixed-cadence surface, and release semantics into a single-indicator view for deeper reading.

相关研究 Related research

优先展示与当前指标直接相关的正式研究和模板化更新摘要，帮助从单指标延伸到主题判断。 Prioritize anchor research and templated update briefs linked to this indicator so the user can move from a single series into thematic reading.

主研究 Anchor Research

Economic Forecasting 研究组 Economic Forecasting Research Desk 正式研究 Anchor research

七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡 How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard

这七个公开指标不是七个平行栏目，而是一张分层记分卡。通胀、增长、劳动力和利率分别提供不同的确认职责，只有把它们按发布时间节奏和信息功能放到同一框架里，平台才会真正像终端，而不是一组孤立图表。 The seven public indicators are not seven parallel columns but a layered scorecard. Inflation, growth, labor, and rates each play a different confirmation role, and only a shared cadence-and-function framework makes the platform feel like a terminal rather than a set of disconnected charts.