主题看板 Thematic Surface
日频 Daily
利率与曲线 Rates & Curve
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y
适合跟踪利率环境与曲线信号。 Best for following the rates regime and curve signals.
进入工作面 Open Surface 深读仪表盘 Deep-Read Dashboard
宏观信号仪表盘 Macro Dashboard
这一页先给出统一的月度配置摘要，再围绕日频、周频、月频三组信号展开深读，适合从月度判断切换到结构化下钻。 This page opens with a unified monthly allocation summary and then drills into daily, weekly, and monthly groups for structured deep reading.
当前周期概况 Current Cycle Summary
更新于 2026-04-07 09:19 Updated 2026-04-07 09:19
7 个正式指标 7 published indicators 当期实时更新 Current-cycle live update ARIMA / AUTO-ARIMAX 预测框架 ARIMA / AUTO-ARIMAX forecast framework
先用月度配置摘要形成统一判断，再按日频、周频、月频下钻深读，避免把发布时间差异误读成异常。 Start with the monthly allocation summary for a unified view, then drill into daily, weekly, and monthly signals without mistaking release differences for anomalies.
月度配置摘要 Monthly Allocation Summary
将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置、投委会汇报与跨资产讨论。 Normalize public indicators to the current decision month for allocation reviews, committee reporting, and cross-asset discussion.
已更新 Updated 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 缺失 Missing
这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。 This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.
| 指标 Indicator | 本期使用值 Current cycle | 下一月预测 Next monthly view | 来源频率 / 观测 Source cadence / Observation | 官方发布 Official release | 状态 Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index PCEPILFE | 3.06 同比 Year over year | 128.24 目标 2026-01-01 Target 2026-01-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-01-01 Observed 2026-01-01 | 2026-02-27 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
| 非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls PAYEMS | 0 同比 Year over year | 158,603 目标 2026-03-01 Target 2026-03-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-03-01 Observed 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. |
| 工业生产 Industrial Production INDPRO | 1.44 同比 Year over year | 102.59 目标 2026-02-01 Target 2026-02-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-02-01 Observed 2026-02-01 | 2026-03-16 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
| 202,000 水平 Level | 285,219 目标 2026-04-28 Target 2026-04-28 | 周频 Weekly 观测 2026-03-28 Observed 2026-03-28 | 2026-04-02 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
| 4.35% 水平 Level | 4.35% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-03 Observed 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
| 3.84% 水平 Level | 3.84% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-03 Observed 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
| 0.50% 水平 Level | 0.50% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-06 Observed 2026-04-06 | 2026-04-06 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. |
相关工作面 Related Surfaces
总览终端负责统一判断，专题看板负责围绕具体主题继续深读。 The overview terminal provides the unified read, while thematic surfaces carry the drill-down into specific subjects.
主题看板 Thematic Surface
周频 Weekly 月频 Monthly
劳动力与就业 Labor & Employment
ICSAPAYEMS
适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。 Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.
进入工作面 Open Surface 主题看板 Thematic Surface
月频 Monthly
增长与通胀 Growth & Inflation
PCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO
适合月度资产配置与基本面跟踪。 Best for monthly allocation and fundamentals tracking.
进入工作面 Open Surface频率导航 Cadence Navigation
月度摘要负责统一判断；下面的导航和深读区继续保留日频、周频、月频的真实发布时间差异。 The monthly summary provides a unified read, while the navigation and deep-read sections below preserve the real release-timing differences across daily, weekly, and monthly signals.
日频 Daily
日频市场信号 Daily Market Signals
利率与利差信号更新更快，更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。 Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.
4.35%
水平 Level
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-03 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
MAE 0.188
RMSE 0.246
MAPE 8.20
方向准确率 Direction 45.2%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(3, 1, 3)
3.84%
水平 Level
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-03 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
MAE 0.164
RMSE 0.225
MAPE 16.54
方向准确率 Direction 49.6%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(1, 1, 0)
0.50%
水平 Level
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-06 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-06 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
MAE 0.122
RMSE 0.200
MAPE 34.16
方向准确率 Direction 49.6%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(3, 1, 0)
周频 Weekly
周频劳动力信号 Weekly Labor Signals
周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间，用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。 Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.
202,000
水平 Level
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-28 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-02 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window 2026-04-28 00:00
MAE 32986.796
RMSE 181317.691
MAPE 5.59
方向准确率 Direction 44.2%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMA(1, 1, 1)
月频 Monthly
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals
通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布，因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.
3.06
同比 Year over year
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-01-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-02-27 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-01-01 00:00
MAE 0.130
RMSE 0.219
MAPE 0.12
方向准确率 Direction 93.2%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(1, 1, 0)
0
同比 Year over year
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-03-01 00:00
MAE 618.320
RMSE 2082.910
MAPE 0.44
方向准确率 Direction 76.9%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)
1.44
同比 Year over year
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测 Observed 2026-02-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-03-16 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-02-01 00:00
MAE 0.691
RMSE 1.419
MAPE 0.71
方向准确率 Direction 47.4%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)