主题看板Thematic Surface
日频Daily
利率与曲线Rates & Curve
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y
适合跟踪利率环境与曲线信号。Best for following the rates regime and curve signals.
进入工作面Open Surface深读仪表盘Deep-Read Dashboard
宏观信号仪表盘Macro Dashboard
这一页先给出统一的月度配置摘要，再围绕日频、周频、月频三组信号展开深读，适合从月度判断切换到结构化下钻。This page opens with a unified monthly allocation summary and then drills into daily, weekly, and monthly groups for structured deep reading.
当前周期概况Current Cycle Summary
更新于 2026-09-01 02:47Updated 2026-09-01 02:47
7 个正式指标7 published indicators当期实时更新Current-cycle live update目标契约 + 嵌套时序验证 + 基线闸门Target contracts + nested time-series validation + baseline gates
先用月度配置摘要形成统一判断，再按日频、周频、月频下钻深读，避免把发布时间差异误读成异常。Start with the monthly allocation summary for a unified view, then drill into daily, weekly, and monthly signals without mistaking release differences for anomalies.
月度配置摘要Monthly Allocation Summary
将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置、投委会汇报与跨资产讨论。Normalize public indicators to the current decision month for allocation reviews, committee reporting, and cross-asset discussion.
已更新Updated按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release缺失Missing
这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.
| 指标Indicator | 本期使用值Current cycle | 下一目标预测Next target forecast | 来源频率 / 观测Source cadence / Observation | 官方发布Official release | 状态Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE | 3.61%核心PCE月度年化通胀Core PCE monthly inflation, annualized | 3.54%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-31按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS | -126k非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls | 0k现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-07按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
0.34%工业生产月度环比增速Industrial production monthly growth | 0.00%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-17按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
204,250初请失业金四周移动平均Four-week average of initial jobless claims | 206,930现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-29Nowcast · Target 2026-08-29 | 周频Weekly观测 2026-08-22Observed 2026-08-22 | 2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
-8.0 bp10年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y Treasury yield | 0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-08-27Observed 2026-08-27 | 2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
-8.0 bp2年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 2Y Treasury yield | 0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-08-27Observed 2026-08-27 | 2026-08-27按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
-8.0 bp10Y-2Y美债利差一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread | 0.0 bp预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-08-28Observed 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-28按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
相关工作面Related Surfaces
总览终端负责统一判断，专题看板负责围绕具体主题继续深读。The overview terminal provides the unified read, while thematic surfaces carry the drill-down into specific subjects.
主题看板Thematic Surface
周频Weekly月频Monthly
劳动力与就业Labor & Employment
ICSAPAYEMS
适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.
进入工作面Open Surface主题看板Thematic Surface
月频Monthly
增长与通胀Growth & Inflation
PCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO
适合月度资产配置与基本面跟踪。Best for monthly allocation and fundamentals tracking.
进入工作面Open Surface频率导航Cadence Navigation
月度摘要负责统一判断；下面的导航和深读区继续保留日频、周频、月频的真实发布时间差异。The monthly summary provides a unified read, while the navigation and deep-read sections below preserve the real release-timing differences across daily, weekly, and monthly signals.
日频Daily
日频市场信号Daily Market Signals
利率与利差信号更新更快，更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.
-8.0 bp
10年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y Treasury yield
下一个交易窗口Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-08-27 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
MASE1.011
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-1.1%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
方向准确率Direction11.4%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]
-8.0 bp
2年期美债收益率一个月变动One-month change in the 2Y Treasury yield
下一个交易窗口Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-08-27 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
MASE1.016
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-1.6%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
方向准确率Direction18.6%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]
-8.0 bp
10Y-2Y美债利差一个月变动One-month change in the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread
下一个交易窗口Next trading window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-08-28 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-28 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个交易窗口Next trading window2026-09-30 00:00
MASE1.000
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline0.0%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
方向准确率Direction27.1%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]
周频Weekly
周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals
周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间，用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.
204,250
初请失业金四周移动平均Four-week average of initial jobless claims
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-08-22 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-27 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个周度窗口Next weekly window2026-08-29 00:00
MASE3.247
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-224.7%
近期 MASERecent MASE0.982
方向准确率Direction49.3%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastNestedEnsemble[robust_state_space+ar]
月频Monthly
月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals
通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布，因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.
3.61%
核心PCE月度年化通胀Core PCE monthly inflation, annualized
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-31 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
MASE1.009
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-0.9%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
方向准确率Direction71.9%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastNestedEnsemble[factor_bridge+robust_state_space]
-126k
非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-07 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
MASE1.136
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-13.6%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.342
方向准确率Direction88.5%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]
0.34%
工业生产月度环比增速Industrial production monthly growth
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-17 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 02:47
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00
MASE1.025
相对基线技能Skill vs baseline-2.5%
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
方向准确率Direction40.3%
观测与预测Observed vs ForecastBaseline[zero]