Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-01 04:36:06Updated 2026-09-01 04:36:06
发布历史工作面Release History Workbench

发布历史与公开版本Release History & Public Vintages

把七个公开指标的正式发布时间历史、当前值、前值、下一预测与公开版本轨迹集中到同一工作面。Bring the seven published indicators together on one surface with official release history, current value, prior value, next forecast, and the public vintage trail.

查看节奏工作台Open cadence workbench查看本次变化Open latest batch

工作面概况Workbench overview

本次更新没有新增正式值进入当前决策月，站点主要维持现有公开读数与发布时间结构。No new official values entered the current decision month in this release; the site mainly carries forward the current public readings and cadence structure.

跟踪指标Tracked signals7 个指标7 signals

当前公开范围固定为七个正式指标。The public scope stays fixed at the seven published signals.

本周期已更新Updated this cycle0 个指标0 signals

本次更新没有新增正式值进入当前决策月，站点主要维持现有公开读数与发布时间结构。No new official values entered the current decision month in this release; the site mainly carries forward the current public readings and cadence structure.

按节奏待发布Awaiting cadence7 个指标7 signals

这些指标仍在各自的正常官方发布时间窗口内等待下一次正式值。These signals are still inside their normal official release windows while waiting for the next print.

当前主信号Lead signal10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

10年期美债收益率 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。10Y Treasury Yield fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

筛选、分享与导出Filters, sharing, and export

统一用 query string 保存 signal / view 视图，可直接复制当前链接、导出当前表格，或打印为 PDF 快照。Use query string to preserve the signal and view selection, then share the current URL, export the active table, or print a PDF snapshot.

指标Signal
视图View

我的关注清单与本地提醒My watchlist and local alerts

把最重要的公开指标保存在本地关注清单里，并按 watchlist / priority / all 三种模式查看当前最该盯住的信号。这里不做服务端推送，只做本地工作台提醒。Keep the most important public indicators in a local watchlist and review them through watchlist, priority, or all modes. This surface stays local-only and does not introduce server-side alert delivery.

提醒范围Alert scope
关注清单还是空的Your watchlist is empty

从下方信号卡片或单指标终端把指标加入关注清单后，这里会自动显示本地提醒。Add signals from the cards below or from any single-indicator terminal, and this section will immediately show the local alert surface.

T10Y2Y日频Daily

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
0.39%

2026-08-28

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

10Y-2Y美债利差 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
DGS10日频Daily

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
4.67%

2026-08-27

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

10年期美债收益率 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。10Y Treasury Yield fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
DGS2日频Daily

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
4.20%

2026-08-27

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

2年期美债收益率 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。2Y Treasury Yield fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
ICSA周频Weekly

初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
203,000

2026-08-27

下一预测Next forecast
206,930

2026-09-03

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

初请失业金人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Initial Jobless Claims fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
PAYEMS月频Monthly

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
158,858

2026-08-07

下一预测Next forecast
+0k

2026-09-04

紧迫度Urgency
MEDIUM

非农就业人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Nonfarm Payrolls fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
PCEPILFE月频Monthly

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
130.66

2026-08-31

下一预测Next forecast
3.54%

2026-09-30

紧迫度Urgency
LOW

核心PCE物价指数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Core PCE Price Index fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
INDPRO月频Monthly

工业生产Industrial Production

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

最近正式值Latest official
102.99

2026-08-17

下一预测Next forecast
0.00%

2026-09-15

紧迫度Urgency
LOW

工业生产 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Industrial Production fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal

多信号对比Signal compare

把最多 4 个公开指标放进同一个对比表里，统一查看最近正式值、前值、下一预测、最近发布时间和下一发布时间。当前对比列表会写入 URL 和 localStorage。Keep up to four published signals in one compare table to review the latest official value, prior value, next forecast, latest release date, and next release date in one place. The active compare set is stored in both the URL and localStorage.

还没有加入任何对比信号No signals in compare yet

从本页信号卡片或单指标终端把指标加入对比后，这里会自动生成多信号对比表。Add signals to compare from this page or from any indicator terminal, and the table below will update automatically.

指标Signal最近正式值Latest official前值Previous value下一预测Next forecast最近发布时间Latest release下一发布时间Next release状态Status
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE
130.661.70%3.54%2026-08-312026-09-30按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS
158,858-17k+0k2026-08-072026-09-04按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
工业生产Industrial ProductionINDPRO
102.99-0.01%0.00%2026-08-172026-09-15按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury YieldDGS10
4.67%+31.0 bp+0.0 bp2026-08-272026-09-01按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury YieldDGS2
4.20%+14.0 bp+0.0 bp2026-08-272026-09-01按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y
0.39%+17.0 bp+0.0 bp2026-08-282026-09-01按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA
203,000202,750206,9302026-08-272026-09-03按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

如何阅读官方发布时间与公开版本How to read official releases and public vintages

这一页把官方发布时间历史和公开站点稳定版本轨迹放在一起，但两者回答的是不同问题。前者回答数据何时由官方发布，后者回答公开站点何时把该版本真正展示给外部用户。This page keeps official release history and public-site vintages together, but they answer different questions. One tells you when the source was officially released; the other tells you when that version became visible on the public site.

Official releaseOfficial release

官方机构公布该读数的时间。它定义正式值何时进入公共信息集。The time when the source institution published the print. It defines when the official value entered the public information set.

Observed atObserved at

该正式值对应的观测期或观测点，例如月度样本期或周度终值日期。The observed period or point associated with the print, such as a monthly sample period or week-ending date.

Site updatedSite updated

公开站点这次完整发布实际完成的时间，用来说明用户何时在站点上看到新版本。The time when the public site completed the corresponding release, showing when users could actually see the new version.

Public vintagePublic vintage

这里只跟踪公开站点的稳定发布快照，不等价于完整数据库修订链，也不声称覆盖所有内部重算版本。This layer tracks stable public-site snapshots only. It is not a full database revision chain and does not claim to cover every internal recomputation.

缓存兜底Cached fallback

当上游抓数临时退化时，站点可能沿用上一版已验证的公开稳定值。它不等于新的 official release，只表示本轮发布沿用了已验证缓存。When upstream fetching degrades temporarily, the site may carry forward the last verified public value. That does not equal a new official release; it means the current publication reused a verified cache.

发布可信度状态Publication reliability states

accepted_only 表示只有可接受的模型统计警告；degraded_but_published 表示站点已发布，但部分数据抓取退化并沿用了稳定缓存；review_required 表示需要人工复核。accepted_only means only acceptable model warnings were recorded; degraded_but_published means the site was published with some fetch degradation and verified cache fallback; review_required means the release needs manual review.

正式发布时间历史Official release history

默认展示七个公开指标中当前所选信号的正式发布时间历史；切换到“公开版本视图”时，会把同一组正式发布时间历史作为当前可见的版本轨迹。The default view shows the official release history for the selected signal. Switching to the public-vintage view keeps the same public release trail while framing it as the currently visible vintage path.

PCEPILFE月频Monthly

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

核心PCE物价指数 当前沿用 3.61% 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 1.70%。Core PCE Price Index is still carrying 3.61% as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was 1.70%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
130.66

2026-08-31

前值Previous official value
1.70%

核心PCE物价指数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Core PCE Price Index fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
3.54%

2026-09-30

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-30 00:00

29 天后In 29 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-312026-07-313.61%历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-312026-06-301.70%历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-302026-05-314.18%历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-292026-04-303.25%历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-302026-03-313.90%历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-312026-02-284.34%历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-272026-01-314.46%历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-302025-12-314.66%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-312025-11-301.92%历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-282025-10-312.49%历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-312025-09-302.36%历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-302025-08-314.29%历史正式值Historical print
PAYEMS月频Monthly

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

非农就业人数 当前沿用 -126k 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 -17k。Nonfarm Payrolls is still carrying -126k as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was -17k.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
158,858

2026-08-07

前值Previous official value
-17k

非农就业人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Nonfarm Payrolls fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
+0k

2026-09-04

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-04 00:00

3 天后In 3 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-072026-07-31-126k历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-032026-06-30-17k历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-052026-05-31+265k历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-012026-04-30+99k历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-032026-03-31+171k历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-062026-02-28-161k历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-062026-01-31-899k历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-022025-12-31-26k历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-052025-11-30+64k历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-072025-10-31-138k历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-032025-09-30+86k历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-052025-08-31+1k历史正式值Historical print
INDPRO月频Monthly

工业生产Industrial Production

工业生产 当前沿用 0.34% 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 -0.01%。Industrial Production is still carrying 0.34% as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was -0.01%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
102.99

2026-08-17

前值Previous official value
-0.01%

工业生产 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Industrial Production fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
0.00%

2026-09-15

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-15 00:00

14 天后In 14 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-172026-07-310.34%历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-152026-06-30-0.01%历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-152026-05-310.15%历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-152026-04-300.69%历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-152026-03-31-0.75%历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-162026-02-280.20%历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-162026-01-310.02%历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-152025-12-310.52%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-152025-11-300.17%历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-172025-10-310.19%历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-152025-09-30-2.43%历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-152025-08-31-0.06%历史正式值Historical print
DGS10日频Daily

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

10年期美债收益率 当前沿用 -8.0 bp 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 +31.0 bp。10Y Treasury Yield is still carrying -8.0 bp as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was +31.0 bp.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
4.67%

2026-08-27

前值Previous official value
+31.0 bp

10年期美债收益率 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。10Y Treasury Yield fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-01 00:00

今天Today

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-312026-08-31-8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-312026-07-31+31.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-302026-06-30-1.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-312026-05-31+5.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-302026-04-30+10.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-312026-03-31+33.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-282026-02-28-29.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-312026-01-31+8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-312025-12-31+16.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-302025-11-30-9.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-312025-10-31-5.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-302025-09-30-7.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
DGS2日频Daily

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

2年期美债收益率 当前沿用 -8.0 bp 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 +14.0 bp。2Y Treasury Yield is still carrying -8.0 bp as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was +14.0 bp.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
4.20%

2026-08-27

前值Previous official value
+14.0 bp

2年期美债收益率 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。2Y Treasury Yield fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-01 00:00

今天Today

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-312026-08-31-8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-312026-07-31+14.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-302026-06-30+16.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-312026-05-31+10.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-302026-04-30+9.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-312026-03-31+41.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-282026-02-28-14.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-312026-01-31+5.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-312025-12-31+0.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-302025-11-30-13.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-312025-10-31+0.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-302025-09-30+1.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
T10Y2Y日频Daily

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

10Y-2Y美债利差 当前沿用 -8.0 bp 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 +17.0 bp。10Y-2Y Treasury Spread is still carrying -8.0 bp as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was +17.0 bp.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
0.39%

2026-08-28

前值Previous official value
+17.0 bp

10Y-2Y美债利差 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-01

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-01 00:00

今天Today

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-312026-08-31-8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-312026-07-31+17.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-302026-06-30-17.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-312026-05-31-5.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-302026-04-30+1.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-312026-03-31-8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-282026-02-28-15.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-312026-01-31+3.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-312025-12-31+16.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-302025-11-30+4.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-312025-10-31-5.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-302025-09-30-8.0 bp历史正式值Historical print
ICSA周频Weekly

初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims

初请失业金人数 当前沿用 204,250 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 202,750。Initial Jobless Claims is still carrying 204,250 as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was 202,750.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
203,000

2026-08-27

前值Previous official value
202,750

初请失业金人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Initial Jobless Claims fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

下一预测Next forecast
206,930

2026-09-03

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-03 00:00

2 天后In 2 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-272026-08-22204,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-202026-08-15202,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-132026-08-08198,000历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-062026-08-01197,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-302026-07-25201,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-232026-07-18206,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-162026-07-11213,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-092026-07-04217,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-022026-06-27221,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-252026-06-20223,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-182026-06-13223,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-112026-06-06219,500历史正式值Historical print