Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-01 04:36:06Updated 2026-09-01 04:36:06
月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

非农就业是确认劳动力市场景气度的核心月频指标，对增长、消费和政策预期都有重要影响。Nonfarm payrolls are a flagship monthly labor indicator that shapes growth, consumption, and policy expectations.

返回终端总览Back to overview terminal查看本次变化Open latest batch查看发布时间日历Open release calendar查看发布历史Open release history

当前周期读数Current-Cycle Readout

把当前可用值、上一期、下一预测和时间语义放在同一页，方便从总览切到单指标深读。Keep the current reading, prior observation, next forecast, and timing semantics on one page for single-indicator deep reading.

偏承压Under Pressure
当前可用值Current usable value
-126k

非农就业月度新增人数Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls

上一期Previous reading
-17k

观测 2026-06-30Observed 2026-06-30

现时预测Nowcast
0k

目标 2026-08-31Target 2026-08-31

状态Current status
正常Normal

按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.

数据状态Data status
缓存兜底Cached fallback

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

本次变化摘要This Cycle Change

这一层直接回答当前值相对上一正式值发生了什么，以及本周期是否已经出现新的正式发布。This layer answers what changed versus the prior official print and whether a new official release has already arrived this cycle.

变化方向Direction
下行Down

非农就业人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。Nonfarm Payrolls fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

最新正式值Latest official value
158,858

上一来源值 158,881Previous source reading 158,881

本周期状态Cycle status
按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

下一次正式发布Next official release
2026-09-04

3 天后In 3 days

非农就业人数 当前沿用 -126k 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 -17k。Nonfarm Payrolls is still carrying -126k as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was -17k.

时间语义Time semantics

最新观测、官方发布、站点更新和预测目标分别回答的是不同问题，不能彼此替代。Observed, official release, site update, and forecast target answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.

最新观测Observed2026-07-01 00:00
官方发布Official release2026-08-07 00:00
站点更新Site update2026-09-01 04:36
下一个月度窗口Next monthly window2026-08-31 00:00

图表阅读Chart view

先看焦点窗口确认最新拐点和预测边界，再看长历史窗口理解该指标在更长周期中的位置。Use the focus window for the latest turn and forecast boundary, then the long-history window for broader cycle context.

焦点图Focus chartBaseline[zero]
长历史图Long-history chart全窗口Full window

模型与诊断Model & diagnostics

MAE430.791
RMSE1862.407
MASE1.136
方向准确率Direction88.5%
相对基线技能值Skill vs baseline-13.6%
近期MASERecent MASE1.342

模型框架：Baseline[zero]Model: Baseline[zero]

发布时间节奏Release cadence

最近一次官方发布Latest official release2026-08-07 00:00
下一次官方发布Next official release2026-09-04 00:00

发布时间有早有后通常来自指标自身的官方节奏差异，而不是站点异常。Differences across release timing usually come from the indicator's official cadence rather than a site anomaly.

2026-08-07观测 2026-07-31Observed 2026-07-31-126k
2026-07-03观测 2026-06-30Observed 2026-06-30-17k
2026-06-05观测 2026-05-31Observed 2026-05-31+265k
2026-05-01观测 2026-04-30Observed 2026-04-30+99k
2026-04-03观测 2026-03-31Observed 2026-03-31+171k
2026-03-06观测 2026-02-28Observed 2026-02-28-161k
正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value本周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-072026-07-31-126k历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-032026-06-30-17k历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-052026-05-31+265k历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-012026-04-30+99k历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-032026-03-31+171k历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-062026-02-28-161k历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-062026-01-31-899k历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-022025-12-31-26k历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-052025-11-30+64k历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-072025-10-31-138k历史正式值Historical print
2025-10-032025-09-30+86k历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-052025-08-31+1k历史正式值Historical print

方法与边界Method & boundary

它更适合做月度确认，短期边际变化仍需要和周频劳动力信号一起读。It is best used as a monthly confirmation gauge and should be read alongside weekly labor signals for shorter-term inflections.

这一详情页把月度配置摘要、混频观察面和发布时间语义汇总到单一指标视角，方便从总览切到深读。This detail page condenses the monthly summary, mixed-cadence surface, and release semantics into a single-indicator view for deeper reading.

相关研究Related research

优先展示与当前指标直接相关的正式研究和模板化更新摘要，帮助从单指标延伸到主题判断。Prioritize anchor research and templated update briefs linked to this indicator so the user can move from a single series into thematic reading.

主研究Anchor Research

Economic Forecasting 研究组Economic Forecasting Research Desk正式研究Anchor research

七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard

这七个公开指标不是七个平行栏目，而是一张分层记分卡。通胀、增长、劳动力和利率分别提供不同的确认职责，只有把它们按发布时间节奏和信息功能放到同一框架里，平台才会真正像终端，而不是一组孤立图表。The seven public indicators are not seven parallel columns but a layered scorecard. Inflation, growth, labor, and rates each play a different confirmation role, and only a shared cadence-and-function framework makes the platform feel like a terminal rather than a set of disconnected charts.

通胀Inflation增长Growth劳动力Labor利率Rates主研究Anchor
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls工业生产Industrial Production初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
发布时间 2026-04-03Published 2026-04-03

月度简报Monthly Briefs

Economic ForecastingEconomic Forecasting月度简报Monthly brief

2026年9月月度配置简报Sep 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 公开指标 展开，并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。This month's brief centers on published signals and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

月度配置Monthly allocation公开指标Published indicators
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls工业生产Industrial Production10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims
发布时间 2026-09-01Published 2026-09-01