Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-01 02:47:16Updated 2026-09-01 02:47:16
系统说明System Guide

主页面保持简洁,工程说明集中到这里。Keep public pages concise and move engineering detail here.

这一页汇总站点结构、模块职责、数据契约、时间语义、发布链路与维护流程,便于持续维护与交接。This page documents site structure, module responsibilities, data contracts, time semantics, publication flow, and maintenance playbooks for long-term upkeep.

站点结构Surface Map

首页Homepage

首页定位为开盘信号面,先提供月度配置摘要,再按发布频率组织 7 个正式指标,并把研究发布放在同一工作面上。The homepage acts as the opening surface, leading with a monthly allocation summary before organizing the seven published indicators by release cadence and pairing them with research releases.

index.html

仪表盘Dashboard

仪表盘定位为深读页,先给出统一的月度配置摘要,再围绕日频、周频、月频三组信号展开大图深读。The dashboard is the deep-read surface, starting with a unified monthly allocation summary before drilling into daily, weekly, and monthly groups with large charts.

arima.html

看板矩阵Dashboard Matrix

把公开工作面拆成总览终端、主题看板与节奏工作面,帮助用户快速理解平台覆盖范围。Breaks the public work surfaces into the overview terminal, thematic dashboards, and cadence workbench so users can quickly understand the platform coverage.

dashboards.html

发布时间日历Release Calendar

围绕七个正式发布指标展示最近一次与下一次官方发布时间,让节奏差异变得可解释。Shows the latest and next official release dates for the seven published indicators so cadence differences become interpretable.

calendar.html

本次变化Latest Batch

把本周期已更新、按节奏待发布、异常项与关联研究放在同一层,专门回答“这次发生了什么”。Keeps updated, pending, abnormal, and related research items on one layer to answer a single question: what changed in the latest batch.

changes.html

研究页Research

研究页聚合已上线内容,支持持续阅读、归档检索与主题跟踪。The research page aggregates live content for ongoing reading, archive access, and thematic tracking.

research.html

方法与数据说明Methodology

对外说明模型框架、评估口径、数据边界与时间差异,不承担完整工程文档职责。This page explains the model framework, evaluation metrics, data boundaries, and time differences without taking on full engineering documentation.

model_data.html

系统说明页System Guide

集中记录布局、组件、数据契约、时间语义、发布链路与维护流程,供维护与交接使用。This page centralizes layout, components, data contracts, time semantics, publication flow, and maintenance guidance for maintainers and handoff.

system_guide.html

布局模块Layout Modules

开盘状态条Opening status bar

展示站点更新时间、覆盖指标数、研究更新数与周期说明,快速建立当前工作面上下文。Shows site update time, indicator coverage, research count, and the current-cycle note to establish context immediately.

分组信号面Grouped signal board

首页按日频、周频、月频三组展示指标卡片,避免将不同发布时间的序列混在一行造成误读。The homepage groups indicator cards into daily, weekly, and monthly sections instead of mixing different release rhythms into one row.

月度配置摘要Monthly allocation summary

在真实发布节奏之上,再抽出一个统一的月度决策层,便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读。A unified monthly decision layer sits above the mixed-cadence surface for monthly allocation and committee-style reading.

深读卡片Deep-read cards

仪表盘卡片采用左侧信息栏与右侧主图布局,保留核心数值、时间语义、预测边界与评估指标。Dashboard cards use a left information rail with a large chart on the right, keeping values, time semantics, forecast boundary, and metrics readable at once.

时间语义条Time semantics row

统一展示最新观测、官方发布、站点更新与预测目标四个字段,并明确说明缺失字段不会被文件时间冒充。A shared row exposes observed, official release, site update, and forecast target timestamps while making clear that missing official dates are not replaced by file times.

页脚次级入口Footer secondary entry

系统说明页只放在页脚次级入口,保持主导航克制。The System Guide is linked only from the footer so the primary navigation stays concise.

数据契约Data Contracts

文件File用途Purpose
homepage.json首页开盘状态条、月度配置摘要、分组信号面、研究摘要与方法说明。Opening status bar, monthly allocation summary, grouped signal board, research summaries, and method notes for the homepage.
dashboard.json仪表盘月度配置摘要、频率导航、深读分组与大图卡片数据。Monthly allocation summary, frequency navigation, deep-read groups, and large-card data for the dashboard.
dashboard_registry.json看板矩阵、专题终端入口与首页产品矩阵所需的工作面目录。Surface registry used by the dashboard matrix, thematic terminal entry points, and the homepage product matrix.
release_calendar.json发布时间日历页与首页日历预览所需的正式发布时间清单。Official release-date records used by the calendar page and the homepage preview.
changes.json本次变化工作面的共享变化对象、当前周期研究条目与重点指标列表。Shared batch-change objects, current-cycle research items, and focus signal lists for the latest-batch workbench.
research_index.json研究列表页的文章摘要与发布时间。Article summaries and publication dates for the research index.
model_data.json方法页的模型覆盖、说明文案、时间语义解释与评估指标。Model coverage, explanatory copy, time-semantics notes, and evaluation metrics for the methodology page.
system_guide.json系统说明页的布局职责、数据契约、时间语义、发布链路与维护流程。Layout responsibilities, data contracts, time semantics, publication workflow, and maintenance guidance for the System Guide.
run_status.json记录运行阶段、发布目标与整体状态,供验证与维护使用。Captures run stages, publish target, and overall status for validation and maintenance.

频率分组规则Frequency Groups

日频市场信号Daily Market Signals

利率与利差信号更新更快,更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.

与当前交易周更接近,更新节奏最快。Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.

周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals

周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间,用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.

按周发布,适合观察劳动力边际变化。Released weekly and useful for reading marginal labor changes.

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布,因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.

按月发布,天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.

时间语义说明Time Semantics

字段Field含义Meaning
observed_at指标当前最新观测期或观测点。The latest observed period or point for an indicator.
official_release_at指标对应的官方发布日期;缺失时显示“待追踪”。The official release date for the indicator. When unavailable, the UI shows “Pending tracking.”
ingested_at系统拉取或缓存入库的时间,用来描述数据何时进入本地流程。The ingestion time that describes when the data entered the local workflow.
site_updated_at当前页面或站点产物的更新时间。The update time of the current page or site output.
forecast_target_at公开预测窗口中的下一目标期。The next target period inside the public forecast window.

指标展示规则Indicator Rules

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

PCEPILFE

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

PAYEMS

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

工业生产Industrial Production

INDPRO

月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

DGS10

日频市场信号Daily Market Signals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

DGS2

日频市场信号Daily Market Signals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

T10Y2Y

日频市场信号Daily Market Signals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims

ICSA

周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals

公开页面展示该指标的最新观测、时间语义、趋势与预测窗口。The public surface shows this indicator through latest observation, time semantics, trend, and forecast window.

发布链路Publication Workflow

collect

抓取原始数据并写入原始缓存。Fetch source data and write raw caches.

prepare

完成预处理、频率对齐与特征转换。Run preprocessing, frequency alignment, and feature transformation.

forecast

生成预测结果、诊断指标与展示所需中间结果。Produce forecasts, diagnostics, and intermediate display outputs.

render

写出站点 payload,并通过 Astro 构建公开页面。Write site payloads and build public pages through Astro.

validate

验证页面、站点数据文件、运行状态与核心数据新鲜度。Validate pages, site payloads, run status, and core data freshness.

publish

同步已验证的静态产物到 OSS。Sync validated static output to OSS.

archive

保存运行状态与快照,供追踪与回滚。Persist run state and snapshots for traceability and rollback.

运行状态字段Run Status Fields

字段Field含义Meaning
run_id单次运行的唯一标识。Unique identifier for a single run.
run_mode本次运行的模式,例如 dry-run 或正式发布。Execution mode, such as dry-run or formal publication.
data_source_mode数据来自实时抓取还是本地缓存。Whether data came from a live pull or local cache.
completed_stages本次运行已经完成的阶段列表。Stages completed within the current run.
publish_target本次发布写入的目标站点。Destination target for the current publication.
overall_status当前运行的总体状态,例如 validated 或 failed。Overall run status, such as validated or failed.

维护流程Maintenance Playbooks

更新 release workspaceUpdate the release workspace

先在开发仓库完成代码验证与提交。Validate and commit code in the development repository first.

再将确认版本同步到 release workspace。Then sync the approved version to the release workspace.

正式计划任务只从 release workspace 运行。Scheduled production runs should execute only from the release workspace.

执行 dry-runRun a dry-run

使用 auto_update 的 dry-run 模式检查依赖、构建与验证。Use the auto_update dry-run mode to verify dependencies, rendering, and validation.

确认不会触发正式 OSS 发布。Confirm that no formal OSS publication is triggered.

执行正式发布Publish formally

通过 release workspace 运行正式发布入口。Run the formal publication entrypoint from the release workspace.

发布前确认健康检查通过,发布后检查 run_status 与网页产物。Confirm health checks before publish, then inspect run_status and generated pages afterwards.

排查失败Troubleshoot failures

先定位失败阶段,再看 run_status、验证输出与相关日志。Identify the failed stage first, then inspect run_status, validation output, and related logs.

发布失败优先检查 OSS 配置,构建失败优先检查前端依赖与站点 payload。For publish failures, inspect OSS configuration first; for render failures, inspect frontend dependencies and site payloads.